02.04.2025
Press Release
The latest model calculations for Eastern Europe indicate an unusual development. The climate service Clim4Cast reports an exceptionally strong anomaly in soil moisture compared to long‐term averages across large parts of Eastern Europe. Researchers at the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) now warn: An extremely dry winter was unable to replenish soils that had dried out during last summer. Regions in Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine are particularly affected. The likelihood of a drought year in these regions is high. Agriculture must closely monitor developments and adjust sowing dates accordingly.
Visitors to the websites of European climate services will notice on the drought monitoring maps for Central and Eastern Europe a significant rainfall and soil moisture deficit. An extremely dry winter has resulted in soils that dried out over the past summer not being replenished with rainfall as is normally the case. While sufficient rainfall in Austria and Hungary has provided a good starting position for agriculture, the situation in Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine remains tense. “The areas currently affected by extremely low soil moisture reserves are among the most productive grain-growing regions in the world. They are therefore also known as Europe’s breadbasket. A poor grain season as a consequence of severe drought could have a significant impact on the global grain market,” explains Prof. Dr. Claas Nendel. He conducts research at the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) in Müncheberg, at the University of Potsdam, and at the Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe) in Brno, Czech Republic.
Situation in Germany
March 2025 is, with a national average of only 21% of the rainfall compared to the period 1991–2020, the sixth driest March-months since 1881. In particular, large areas in the north have received only a few liters per square meter. The severe rainfall deficit has caused the moisture of the upper soil layers—especially in parts of inland northern Germany—to drop significantly below the seasonal norms. Regionally, the soil moisture values in March are considerably lower than those recorded in 2018. If the dry conditions persist, delays in the emergence of sown summer crops and drought stress in young plants may occur. Due to the low rainfall, the second highest forest fire danger level was recently declared in Bavaria and Brandenburg.
The German Weather Service (DWD) looks ahead with weather and seasonal climate forecasts for the coming weeks and months in Germany: Until mid-April, a strong tendency for drier soil moisture conditions is forecast for almost all of Germany, except for southern Bavaria. By the end of April or early May, this is expected to ease slightly and shift its focus to northern and western Germany, although forecast reliability may decline somewhat in certain regions. According to the seasonal DWD model that started in early March, there is a moderate probability of warmer conditions for the period June–August 2025 (DWD press conference on 01.04.25). Only in Schleswig-Holstein and northwestern Germany are the probability and forecast quality somewhat lower. For soil moisture, the DWD anticipates a moderate likelihood of drier conditions in the coming summer—particularly in the Thuringian Basin, Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg, Western Pomerania, and northern Saxony. For other regions, the signals are significantly weaker or no reliable forecast can be identified. The weather forecast is updated weekly, and the seasonal climate forecast monthly at
www.dwd.de/klimavorhersagen.
Challenges for Agriculture
Farmers are now advised to monitor the soil moisture trend (www.dwd.de/bodenfeuchteviewer) in order not to miss the optimal sowing window for summer crops. If rainfall continues to be insufficient in large parts of Germany, impacts on crop development can be expected.
Further Information
Copernicus:
Project Partners
- Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
- Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe)
- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
Funding Notice:
Clim4Cast is funded by the European Union – Interreg Central Europe
