18.02.2025
Smallholder farmers in West Africa are increasingly challenged by climate change. Researchers from the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), together with international partners, have developed a model that not only shows how climate change will affect crop yields and grass biomass in the region but also how mixed crop-livestock systems can adapt. The study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, examines the challenges posed by climate change and outlines ways to promote more sustainable agriculture.
The study examines future developments under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), which assumes a mid-term increase in global temperatures. The SIMPLACE modeling framework, which simulates interactions between crops, grasslands, and livestock, integrates data and processes from areas such as soil, plant growth, and livestock management to provide a comprehensive understanding of agricultural systems.
The results indicate that in the northern Sahel, crop yields could decline by up to -56% and grass biomass by up to -57% by 2050. This could lead to a reduction in livestock numbers by up to -43%. Methane emissions could also decrease by up to -47%, primarily due to the decline in livestock numbers.
Amit Kumar Srivastava, lead author from ZALF, emphasizes: “Our results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture in West Africa. It is essential to develop strategies that not only stabilize production but also enhance the long-term resilience of agricultural systems.”
Positive Trends in Certain Areas
Interestingly, some regions in the South Sudan zone exhibited opposing trends: livestock numbers and methane emissions could increase by up to +24% due to higher rainfall and improved feed availability. These regional differences underscore the complexity and variability of the impacts of climate change.
Recommendations for Agricultural Adaptation
- Optimized crop rotations and resilient crop varieties: Drought- and heat-tolerant crops such as millet and sorghum can help stabilize yields.
- Improved grazing and feed management strategies: Sustainable grazing practices and integrated forage production can address feed shortages.
- Water-saving technologies: Techniques such as drip irrigation and expanded rainwater harvesting systems can be critical during dry periods.
- Livestock management adjustments: Strategies such as reducing herd sizes in severely affected areas or promoting climate-resilient livestock breeds can help minimize losses.
The results call for targeted policy and practical measures. It is important to engage local and global stakeholders to strengthen the resilience of agricultural systems while minimizing emissions.
Project Partners: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), University of Bonn, Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology, Wuhan University, and other international partners.
Funding: Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. This research was supported by the UPSCALERS project (Grant AURG II-1-074-2016), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the framework “Soil as a Sustainable Resource for the Bioeconomy – BonaRes” (Grant 031B0151A), and the German Research Foundation (DFG, EXC 2070–390732324).
Further Information:
Link to the original publication: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-81986-8
Text Disclaimer:
This is a summary created with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on the original publication: Srivastava, A.K., et al. (2025). Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa. Scientific Reports, 15:1399. Available at
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81986-8, published under the CC BY 4.0 license
CC BY 4.0.
