17.10.2024
In a review article, researchers from the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) have examined how climate change affects crop yields. They evaluated experimental, observational and model-based studies and examined the influence of higher temperatures, extreme events, changing water availability and increased CO2 levels on the yields of wheat, maize, rice, sorghum and millet. Both the influences and the effects depend strongly on the type of cereal, the region and the management practices. The article was published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment in November 2023 and is one of the most cited articles in the field of geosciences during its period of publication.
Climate change is likely to result in lower yields in many regions, as higher temperatures, more frequent extreme events, and increased drought stress heighten the risk of crop failure. On the other hand, higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures could actually lead to higher yields in higher latitudes. For Instance, shorter winters in Scandinavia will lead to longer growing seasons, giving plants more time to grow. In the tropics, yields will decrease due to high temperatures, and excessive or insufficient water availability. Agricultural adaptations will not be able to fully compensate for these effects. In all regions of the world, extreme weather events pose a major threat to future food production.
"Our results show that there is no simple and universal solution to protect yields from the impacts of climate change. Regionally adapted strategies are the key to minimizing crop losses," says
Dr. Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, lead author of the study and a scientist at ZALF. "Irrigation and adjustments in nutrient management are the most promising options. However, they often require large investments from farmers. Moreover, irrigation is not possible in all regions to the extent required due to limited resources," Dr Rezaei added.
Many factors at play
Several factors influence changes in crop yields, primarily increased in CO2 concentrations, rising temperatures and shifting water availability. Depending on the region, cropping system and crop, these factors have varying effects. The researchers accounted for this in their review, going a step further than previous studies, which often examined these factors in isolation. By evaluating experimental, observational and large-scale model-based studies, they provide a stronger foundation for developing regionally adapted strategies to better mitigate the negative effects of climate change on cropping systems.
The article was published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment in November 2023 and garnered significant attention from the scientific community. It was highly cited within its first year, ranking among the top 1 percent in the field of Geosciences.
The authors conclude that future research should focus on conducting multifactor experiments and developing models that integrate biotic stress to better understand crop responses to climate change. Combining process-based and data-driven models can improve yield predictions, while high-resolution data collection will enhance the accuracy of climate impact assessments. Additionally, advancing adaptation strategies like optimized irrigation and nutrient management will be crucial for mitigating climate change effects on crop production.
Project partners:
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Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany.
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Institute of Environmental Sciences, Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus, Germany.
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Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, HEF World Agricultural Systems Center, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.
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Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
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Unité de Recherches Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), INRAE, Lusignan, France.
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Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
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LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
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Soil and Irrigation Research Centre, College of Basic and Applied Sciences, University of Ghana, Kpong, Ghana.
Funding:
We acknowledge the support of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project AgMIP, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation, project no. 520102751), the DFG under Germany’s Excellence Strategy — EXC 2070–390732324., the EU Project Horizon 2020 (grant no. 727247), the Agriculture and Forestry in the Face of Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation (CLIMAE) Meta-Program and the AgroEcoSystem Division of the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE).Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE).
