08.01.2025

Spatial planning determines whether an area is designated as industrial, residential or agricultural land. So far, however, this has hardly been adapted to future agriculture. Soil values and weather assessments from recent years are often the only basis for designating agricultural land. But what happens when the climate changes? ZALF researchers have developed a new method for Brandenburg, so that climate models and yield forecasts can provide better and more sustainable support for such decisions in the future. One of the results are maps that show where agriculture will be profitable in the future under the influence of climate change.
The state of Brandenburg covers about 3 million hectares, of which around 45% is used for agriculture. Decisions on the use of land for residential, commercial, nature conservation or agricultural purposes are the responsibility of spatial planning at federal, state, regional and local levels. Privately owned land must also comply with these guidelines. Although owners are basically free to dispose of their land as they wish, they must comply with regional development plans, nature conservation requirements and priority areas.
Traditionally, planning is based on indicators such as the soil value index - a measure of the productive capacity of agricultural land - or average temperatures and rainfall. However, challenges such as climate change and competing demands - for example from human settlements or renewable energy - are making planning more difficult and require new approaches.
A new tool for sustainable spatial planning
The researchers in the study carried out a dynamic bio-economic analysis, looking at different sources of information and forecasts:
Climate simulations: Data on future climate trends, such as changes in temperatures and precipitation, are fed into climate models.
Yield projections: Simulations are used to calculate the future yields of agricultural land under these conditions. Economic factors such as production costs and market prices are also taken into account.
Bio-economic models: These integrate biological, ecological and economic data to estimate how different areas can be used sustainably.
With this approach, the researchers were able to identify areas that could enable stable agricultural production even under future climate conditions. In addition to contributing to food security, this also supports the effective integration of other land use options - such as nature conservation or renewable energies.
"Our analysis shows that a holistic view of the land enables new solutions that both strengthen agriculture and support environmental goals," says Hannah von Czettritz, author of the study.
The results are available to planners in the form of maps that clearly illustrate climate-resilient agricultural priority areas, alternative use options and potential conflict zones, thus supporting sustainable and future-oriented spatial planning.
Stakeholder participation
The study was developed in close collaboration with local stakeholders. More than 60 participants from areas such as politics, regional planning, interest groups and agriculture contributed their knowledge and perspectives in workshops at an early stage. This fostered acceptance of the results and enabled practical adaptation of the proposals.
Funding:
The research work is partly the result of a project funded by the Regionale Planungsgemeinschaft Oderland-Spree.
Further Information:
Hinweis zum Text:
Hannah Jona von Czettritz et al. (2024): "Classification of agricultural priority and reserved areas in Brandenburg under consideration of bio-economic climate simulations". Veröffentlicht in Raumforschung und Raumordnung | Spatial Research and Planning. DOI: 10.14512/rur.2247, published under the license CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)